As Election Day draws near, all eyes are on Texas, where Democratic challenger Colin Allred is hoping to pull off an upset against incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. This tightly contested Senate race has garnered national attention, with Democrats pouring resources into the Lone Star State in hopes of flipping a seat that has been reliably red since 1988. With polls showing the candidates neck and neck, the race could go down to the wire, marking one of the most high-stakes battles in this year’s midterms.
Polls Show Cruz Holding a Narrow Lead, but Allred Closes the Gap
In recent weeks, polling data has shown a slight but consistent lead for Cruz, though Allred has gained significant ground since the campaign began. An Emerson College poll released on October 23 puts Cruz ahead by a mere 1 percentage point, with 48% of likely voters backing him to Allred’s 47%. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the race rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” indicating that Allred’s grassroots momentum has made this a much closer contest than many originally anticipated.
The Cruz campaign remains confident but has seen Allred chip away at the senator’s lead, thanks to an energized Democratic base and strategic campaigning in suburban and urban areas. In a statement to supporters, Allred said, “We started this race 7 points down, and thanks to our grassroots efforts, we’re now tied in the fourth quarter. There’s no time to spare.”
A Battle of Values: Candidates Appeal to Texas’ Diverse Voter Base
Both Cruz and Allred have shaped their campaigns around issues that resonate deeply with Texas voters, particularly immigration, the economy, and abortion rights. Cruz has positioned himself as a staunch conservative with strong ties to former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him early in the race. Allred, meanwhile, has leaned into his bipartisan record, highlighting his support for reproductive rights, as well as his critiques of the Biden administration on immigration and energy policies.
The candidates’ strategies reflect the changing demographics in Texas, where a growing population of younger, more diverse voters has made once reliably Republican areas more competitive. Allred has focused his efforts on suburban and urban voters, while Cruz has aimed to rally his base in more conservative parts of the state.
Fundraising and Endorsements: Democrats’ Last-Minute Push to Boost Allred
The Democratic Party has invested heavily in Allred’s campaign, with recent multimillion-dollar contributions from the Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Allred’s supporters, including Vice President Kamala Harris and Texas native Beyoncé, have turned out for campaign events to rally the base and encourage voter turnout. By contrast, Cruz has received minimal financial support from national Republican groups, with the Senate Leadership Fund choosing not to allocate resources to his campaign this cycle.
Despite limited national backing, Cruz has managed to hold his own financially, thanks to robust in-state fundraising. Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak believes Cruz will ultimately benefit from Trump’s lead in Texas, which could buoy Cruz to the finish line.
The 2018 Factor: Lessons from Beto O’Rourke’s Campaign Against Cruz
Cruz’s previous Senate race against Beto O’Rourke in 2018 serves as a significant point of comparison for this year’s contest. In that race, O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of unseating Cruz, underscoring the vulnerability of a Republican stronghold. This year, Allred’s campaign has taken a different approach, focusing on targeted voter engagement in high-population areas rather than trying to cover all of Texas’ 254 counties. Allred has aimed to portray himself as a pragmatic choice, distinct from the national Democratic platform, particularly on issues like energy and the border.
High Stakes and National Implications
The outcome of the Texas Senate race could have major implications for control of the U.S. Senate. Currently, Democrats hold a slim 51-49 majority, and flipping Cruz’s seat could be pivotal in maintaining that edge. For many Democrats, a victory in Texas would not only be a symbolic win but a practical gain that might inspire further inroads in traditionally Republican strongholds.
While the odds remain in Cruz’s favor, the race is tighter than anyone anticipated, with the possibility of an election night upset. For Texas Democrats, Allred’s candidacy is already seen as a win for boosting Democratic turnout in other down-ballot races, which could shift the state’s political landscape long-term.
As Texas voters head to the polls, the nation will be watching to see if Allred can defy the odds or if Cruz will once again retain his Senate seat. The final days will be crucial for both campaigns as they make their case to a deeply divided electorate.
